Where Would You Put Your Chips
01/05/10 13:29
This post on Pileus got me thinking about what country has the best outlook for the future.
The question posed by Jim Otteson is this:
Suppose all the countries in the world today are arrayed before you like spaces on a craps table. You have to put all your chips on one country. The time horizon is your life span, plus that of your children, plus that of your grandchildren. Allowing reasonable overlap and life expectancy, let’s suppose that horizon is 100 years. So: if you have to put all your chips in a single bet on one country’s success from 2010–2110, which country do you choose?
A few years ago I would have said Ireland because of their reduction in corporate income tax, GDP per capita, quality of life, ranking on the Economic Freedom Index and overall culture. However, the current financial crisis has hit it much harder than other countries. The “Irish Property Bubble” and overall level of debt makes me leery.
Australia would probably be my second choice because it has the lowest percentage of debt as a proportion of GDP and the overall level of taxation seems to be decreasing. Drawbacks are it’s cap on carbon emissions and high cost of housing.
With that said, I don’t know if there’s anywhere particularly “safe” to bet on in the current geopolitical climate…
Where would you choose to put your chips?
The question posed by Jim Otteson is this:
Suppose all the countries in the world today are arrayed before you like spaces on a craps table. You have to put all your chips on one country. The time horizon is your life span, plus that of your children, plus that of your grandchildren. Allowing reasonable overlap and life expectancy, let’s suppose that horizon is 100 years. So: if you have to put all your chips in a single bet on one country’s success from 2010–2110, which country do you choose?
A few years ago I would have said Ireland because of their reduction in corporate income tax, GDP per capita, quality of life, ranking on the Economic Freedom Index and overall culture. However, the current financial crisis has hit it much harder than other countries. The “Irish Property Bubble” and overall level of debt makes me leery.
Australia would probably be my second choice because it has the lowest percentage of debt as a proportion of GDP and the overall level of taxation seems to be decreasing. Drawbacks are it’s cap on carbon emissions and high cost of housing.
With that said, I don’t know if there’s anywhere particularly “safe” to bet on in the current geopolitical climate…
Where would you choose to put your chips?
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